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Did you see where Madden's simulations have been right on for the past 7 years? Even this year where the Saints weren't the "obvious" favorite?

Also, there are many retrospective baseball posts about PECOTA, CHONE, ZiPS and the like. Which is also very interesting.

Most notably, I very much enjoy the comparisons of how much better these models do than baseball analysts who don't use rigor.


Many people knew the "model" was bad. Many brokers knew they were making bad loans that would likely never be paid back. But ... everybody else was doing it. Make bad loans, or be crushed by the competition. At least, that was the mentality driving the low level brokers who then sold everything back up the chain.

If you have time, this episode of "This American Life" talks to several of those brokers: http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=390.

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