APT - The Sonny Response or the Michael Response?

People say that APT is unprecedented, but its not at all. Remember Godfather II? Frank Pentangeli would come and complain to Michael Corleone about those Rosato brothers who were moving in on his turf. This was after Michael moved the family to Vegas and Reno to set the Corleone family up for bigger things.

Last week the APT cheerleaders were all excited that the White House sent a message to Beijing by sending arms to Taiwan. Unfortunately this move was both clueless and tone deaf.

And now one business day later, we get the blowback in the front page of the FT, Aerospace sector fears China sanctions - duh?!?

Boeing, which warned on Friday that it expects revenue to fall this year, estimates China will need 3,770 new aircraft – worth up to $400bn – by 2028. 

Hmmm...$6B of arms to Taiwan or $400B aircraft? "Sending messages to threats" or trying to win business, gain customers and build assets like a $600B electricity grid project? What is the smart move here? Now the grown ups have to come in and clean up the mess, because someone wanted to prove a point and send a message a la Sonny Corleone.

Michael's brother Sonny of course was ready to fight anyone and everyone, and interestingly enough did not have a long run atop the family. What was Michael's response? "Now I have business with Hyman Roth, I don't want it disturbed."

The good thing is that important parts of the military (the ground pounders) have learned this lesson. Its not about threats, its about security. When Petraeus went to Iraq it was all about metrics of how many bad guys we killed. He changed the metrics to how many grandmothers can get safely to and from the market to buy lemons. Turning around a seemingly unwinnable situation by changing the way he looked at it. This is security.

“I don’t do defense; I do security. When you talk defense, you talk containment and mutually assured destruction. When you talk security, you talk collaboration and networking. This is the future.” – Tom Barnett

But what about the spying you say? Besides the fact that policymakers' habit of thinking too much about those who attack us and too little about our attacks on others its time to Butch up Sally:

If we're honest with our own history, we have to admit that China is using many of the same catch-up tactics we once employed in our own rise more than a century ago, including widespread industrial espionage (otherwise known as stealing). The Chinese defend their rapacious ways by pointing to the 700 million rural poor that remain their problem -- not ours. The point is well-taken. Unless we want another Africa-sized development problem on our hands, some patience is in order.

WWMD - What Would Michael Do? Well for one thing he wouldn't look at security as an isolated area, he would look at it in the larger economic context.

Comments

[Marcus Ranum]

Incredibly perceptive; excellent analysis. Can I sit at your feet and call you "sensei"?

[Jeff Pettorino]

Really great article, Gunnar! The point about Petraeus and the metrics was a turning point for me in the current discussions about 'APT'. Thanks for sharing with us!